All in all, the $7-to-$12 billion estimated excess costs of piracy is “not a definitive result but an approximation," OEF said. Yet the group is calling on the international community “to develop a global response that deals comprehensively with deterrence, suppression, and prosecution of piracy". OEF’s report wrote that around 500 seafarers from 18 countries (including Filipinos) were hostaged by pirates. The Oceans Beyond Piracy research analyzed the cost of piracy that’s happening at the Horn of Africa, Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea, and the Malacca Straits. But the report’s focus was on the Somali piracy since that carried the most number of piracy incidents. The Department of Labor and Employment recently collaborated with the global advocacy group Save-Our-Seafarers, run by chair Giles Heimann. “It is terrible, and completely unacceptable, that ordinary people going about their everyday work should have to encounter such horrors," Heimann said at a recent press conference. "There are more than 100,000 seafarers at any one time either preparing to go through the Gulf of Aden, or transiting its waters. Taking their families’ feelings into account, you have half a million people everyday gripped by fear due to Somali piracy," he added - via GMA News.
Members of the International Somalia Contact Group held an ad hoc meeting on the Financial Aspects of Somali Piracy in Seoul last week, and focused on the growing need for international cooperation to stop the flow of money to Somali pirates, prevent money laundering and gather information about the de facto powers behind the pirates, that is, the instigators of pirate activities and their sources of funds, says the American Enterprise Institute.
The 80 participants, under the stewardship of Moon Ha-young, Korea's ambassador for global counterterrorism cooperation, agreed to build a database on intelligence concerning Somali pirates and their financiers. All member governments of the Contact Group will be given access to the information in the database when it is completed and are encouraged to increase teamwork within their law enforcement agencies when investigating piracy.
Such proactive and cohesive action by several nations is a positive step toward countering the ever increasing threat of Somali pirates. Therefore, it is essential to also consider alternative methods, such as using the threat of sanctions and freezing corporate assets in cases of non-compliance, to stop ship owners from paying ransoms.
Ransoms paid to Somali pirates to free merchant vessels are ending up in the hands of Islamist militants, laying shipping groups open to accusations of breaching international sanctions, U.N. officials told Reuters.
John Steed, the principal military adviser to the U.N. special envoy to Somalia and head of the envoy's counter-piracy unit, said links between armed pirate gangs and Somalia's al Qaeda-affiliated rebels were gradually firming.
"The payment of ransoms just like any other funding activity, illegal or otherwise, is technically in breach of the Somalia sanctions regime if it makes the security situation in Somalia worse," said Steed. "Especially if it is ending up in the hands of terrorists or militia leaders -- and we believe it is, some directly, some more indirectly," said Steed, a retired military officer [who was posted to Kenya in the latter part of his Army career].
About a quarter of the sailors taken report abusive treatment by the pirates. This includes beatings, starvation and just all-round nasty behavior. When a ransom is about to be paid, the pirate behaviour gets better, as does the food supplies and living conditions, in general. The pirates understand that sending these sailors home feeling less bad is good publicity. As long as the pirates don't kill their captives in large numbers, there will be no outcry for an invasion of the Somali ports that serve as pirate headquarters, says
Strategy Page. That façade of civility is crumbling. Merchant sailors are getting tired of the pirate threat. While chances of being attacked in pirate waters are less than one percent, the tension for sailors is a hundred percent. Most of the threatened sailors are from India or the Philippines. India is in the neighbourhood, has a large navy and a population that is increasingly calling for more aggressive action against the pirates. The pirates have responded by threatening harsher treatment of Indian sailors. All this could turn out badly, especially for the pirates.
The night of August 1, 2010, had begun as just another for the 22 sailors onboard the MV Suez, the property of Red Sea Navigation, an Egyptian shipping company headed by Mohammad Soubhi, writes Hindustan Times in an article entitle 'Intimate Enemies'. At any given point in time, more than a lakh [Indian numbering - equal to 100,000] mechanised ships such as the MV Suez crowd the world's seas, transporting goods to far off places and keeping the world economy afloat. Manning these merchant ships — most of which require only a handful of crew members — are sailors such as Ravinder, 31, a science graduate, who manage safety equipment and navigation, while others such as Satnam Singh, 21, a commerce student from Ambala, perform other odd jobs. All of them took turns to keep a watch on the sea as the ship was moving towards Somalian waters. On vigil on the deck that night, Satnam saw a small boat approaching MV Suez and then disappearing. It was a recce — next morning, the pirates would strike. The leader of the pirate gang was Abdul Kus, who "looked 30-plus" and wore combat fatigues. Bashir, Ahmed, Mahmood and Abdul Salam — all in their teens — wore T-shirts and wraps and their AK 47s. They slapped and kicked the hostages occasionally, "more for effect than to harm," remembers Satnam. Members of gang were hired professionals, who the pirates got onboard on a monthly, weekly on even daily basis. Te weapons and boats are hired. Then there are financiers who underwrite the expenses until ransom is settled. The translators kept changing; Hasan, a "US citizen," left early, to be followed by Mossa, and then Khalid, the teenager who was half Portuguese, half Somalian. Haji Mohammad, the fourth and the last, clinched the ransom deal. The negotiations started with six million dollars, and Soubhi never went above 800,000. Haji Mohammad realised the ship owner didn't care much and began build pressure on the families of the sailors, by making them call home thrice a week.
Southeast Asia Piracy
China's aggressiveness in asserting its claims to parts of the South China Sea contested by the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei is damaging regional cooperation against piracy, allowing more attacks—41 so far this year after only 30 last year, reports MaritimeSecurity.Asia.
Naval exercises with the USA this week do include anti-piracy drills but the main aim has become establishing sovereignty. The lack of hiding and mooring space for large vessels still makes piracy in the region a tough business but the recent move in Southeast Asia from robbing crews to hijacking vessels is a worrying development. Currently, most piracy in the region appears opportunistic, often theft from ships anchored in ports such as Jakarta in Java and Samarinda in Borneo. The Strait of Singapore and the Strait of Malacca used to be the most heavily attacked area—being among the most important and congested shipping lanes in the world. More than 80,000 ships passed through last year between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Over 30 percent of all oil carried by sea passes through the straits, heading for China, Japan and South Korea. The potential economic damage is huge. Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have coordinated piracy patrols since 2004, with 38 attacks that year after a peak of 75 in 2000. They cut this to 10 in 2005 and only a handful since, International Maritime Bureau figures show. But attacks have increased in the South China Sea, with 13 known in 2009, 30 in 2010 and 41 so far this year, they show. The 11 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) follow the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). Established in 2004 and ratified by 17 countries, the agreement encourages information exchange to fight smuggling, piracy and terrorism at sea. But ReCAAP is non-binding. Many, including China and Asean members, want a more forceful response. Singapore has supported international assistance against piracy—but Indonesia and Malaysia oppose foreign involvement.
A united Asean would be best suited to fight piracy but it faces other problems. The continuing Thai-Cambodia border dispute has damaged relationships because Thailand rejected mediation attempts by Indonesia and the Philippines. Recent fighting in Burma between government troops and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has highlighted Burma’s human rights abuses. Burma’s alleged nuclear ambitions are also likely to damage relations with Asean. Piracy looks set to remain on the backburner. Up until now, the United States has called for greater coordination against piracy but had offered little tangible assistance. Joint naval exercises this month, however, do include training for regional threats such as piracy—but mainly as a show of solidarity against Chinese claims, the report goes on to say. These changing geopolitics threaten broad cooperation, giving room to the pirates who hijack and kidnap.
EU's Piracy Forecast
The EU's Naval Force HQ Intelligence team have released a probability matrix detailing potential pirate attack areas over the next 6 months.
The basic tactics remain unchanged. The size of PAGs may possibly change in response to shipping industry security hardening measures. Attack and boarding methodology is not expected to significant alter. There is likelihood of more pirate dhows and less MVs being used as motherships. The break down is laid out by month as follows (full release via Safety4Sea):
July - in 2009/10, it was the quietest for pirate activity but is likely to be busier this year in view of May and June seeing relative inactivity due to the Southwest monsoon.
August - Monsoon weather continues to preclude operations. Increased human trafficking in the Gulf of Aden is likely and may see attacks of opportunity carried out on their return leg. PAGs in the vicinity of the IRTC and Dhow-based PAGs in the Indian Ocean in late August is possible.
September - Traditionally, activity increases as the monsoon dissipates. The Arabian Sea, followed by the Somali Basin and Indian Ocean will see attacks commence.
October - Higher tempo is expected in all areas. Concentration of activity in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, whilst whaler-based PAGs will threaten the shipping lanes of Kenya and Tanzania.
November - Recorded as the busiest month in 2010, it is likely to see the same again in 2011.
December - Approach of the Northeast monsoon which is less severe than the Southwest monsoon. Unlikely to be a major barrier to activity in the Indian Ocean as previously witnessed. Although it is expected to be a slightly reduced tempo of activity.
The summary of assessed probability of pirate activity by area and month (see Safety4Sea for full table and Guidance matrix (Source: EUNAVFOR)):
2011 Gulf of Aden Arabian Sea North Somali Basin South Somali Basin
July Highly Likely Realistic Possibility Realistic Possibility Realistic Possibility
August Highly Likely Realistic Possibility Realistic Possibility Realistic Possibility
September Likely Highly Likely Highly Likely Highly Likely
October Likely Almost Certain Almost Certain Almost Certain
November Likely Almost Certain Almost Certain Almost Certain
December Highly Likely Highly Likely Likely Likely